Anuário da Indústria de Implementos Rodoviários 2018

55 A fter ending 2017 with much better figures than initially forecast, the automotive sector is more optimistic about 2018. There is consensus among the main entities representing the sector regarding double-digit growth in domestic sales, with positive effects on production and, consequently, on the reduction of idle capacity in the industry. Anfavea and Fenabrave forecast versa similar domestic market figures in January - 11.7% and 11.8%, respectively - which would represent sales of 2.5 million vehicles this year. But after the first quarter’s results were reported, Fenabrave decided to revise its forecasts for automobiles, trucks and road implements. Growth in light vehicle sales was increased from 11.9% to 15.2%, at 2.5 million licensed vehicles. The forecast for growth in trucks and road implements was increased by even more - from 9.5% to 17% for trucks, and from 7% to an impressive 41% for road implements. Fenabrave now forecasts sales of 60,900 trucks and 36,100 road implements this year. Several factors have contributed to this new outlook, says the president of Fenabrave, Alarico Assumpção Jr: “GDP growth, now forecast at 3.5%, falling bad debt, the prospect of excellent harvest, and credit available for light and heavy vehicles will drive better figures than we anticipated,” he says. Fenabrave - even revising its numbers - is less optimistic than Anfavea about heavy vehicles. It has held its forecast for 27.7% growth in sales of trucks and buses, with a total of 81,300 sales this year. The representatives of the main truck manufacturers forecast 30% growth insoles, to something close to 67,500 units, compared with 51,900 last year. For the president of Fenabrave, however, growth of close to 30% in truck sales will be difficult because of the limitations on the heavy truck industry. “The time it takes to develop new suppliers and even to reprogram upwards volumes of parts is longer for truck manufacturers. There are also imported items, especially electronics, that come from countries with booming markets, such as the United States, Germany, Korea and Japan, which may be another limiting factor.” Automakers Regarding production for the industry as a whole, Anfavea is betting on growth of 13.1%, which would be an increase form 2.7 million vehicles in 2017 to 3.055 million units this year. Last year the growth was 25.2%, with production being leveraged mainly by exports. With 762,000 vehicles exported in the year, growth was 46.5% on 2016.And Anfavea forecasts 5% more growth this year in exports, to 800,000 units. “The macroeconomic scenario is optimistic, with falling inflation, a stable exchange rate and GDP growth making it possible to regain consumer and investor confidence. Even though it is an election year, 2018 should see growth in the economy and in the automobile industry,” says Antonio Megale, president of the entity. And the first quarter numbers confirm expectations announced in January. At the time, Megale said idle capacity was 47% in automobiles and light commercial vehicles and up to 75% in trucks. By April these rates had fallen to 37% and 47%, respectively. Suppliers Similarly to Anfavea and Fenabrave, the president of Sindipeças, Dan Ioschpe is also confident that the sector will continue to recover in Brazil. He says this reflects a greater volume of investment here. The entity forecasts the auto parts industry will earn R$ 82.6 billion this year, 7.4% more than in 2017. The planned investments for the development of new products and new industrial processes is around R$ 2.19 billion, 17% up on the R$ 1.87 billion last year. The auto parts sector, says Ioschpe, experienced its worst crisis between 2013 and 2016, which created problems for suppliers. Recovery last year, he admits, was faster than expected. “But suppliers have been able to respond to rising demand and are going to invest more this year. These indicators prove what I have been saying: the resilience of the auto parts industry is undeniable - at no time does it hinder production of vehicles,” says the president of Sindipeças. Leaders of the automotive industry expect growth in light and heavy vehicle production and sales in 2018 Double-digit consensus