Anuário da Indústria de Implementos Rodoviários 2020

50 PERSPECTIVAS 2020 | 2020 PROSPECTS | PERSPECTIVAS 2020 Luiz Carlos Moraes, president, Anfavea Would you say that 2019 was a good year for the automotive industry?  Brazil finished the year with 2.57 million vehicles sold, up by 8.6% over the previous year, thus moving up from 8th to 6th in the global ranking. The domestic market, in fact, accounted for 2.3% growth in production, despite the 31.9% fall in exports caused by the severe Argentine crisis. We should celebrate these figures, which show a consistent recovery in the sector for the third year in a row. Can we expect further progress in 2020?  All the indicators for the Brazilian economy point to more robust recover this year: we have never had such a low base rate (Selic), which should be reflected in lower rates for vehicle financing. Inflation remains under control, employment is beginning to show signs of improvement, there is a recovery in confidence levels and GDP is likely to improve. We are forecasting a 9.4% increase in sales, to 3.05 million units. With this booming domestic market, the industry expects to make 7.3% more vehicles than in 2019, even with a fall in exports estimated at 11%, to 3.16 million units. For the machinery sector, we estimate 5.4% growth in production and 2.9% in sales. These are important figures, especially when on a more solid base...  These figures are more encouraging, but still not enough for us to resume the sales and production peaks just before the 2014- 2016 crises. What are the relevant drivers to the industry this year and in the coming years?  Brazil is on track for structural reforms and public machinery clearance, but it needs to be even more ambitious by driving reforms and privatization, and especially fighting the Brazil Cost. We will only have long-lasting recovery when the country eliminates tax, logistical and bureaucratic obstacles. We cannot deceive ourselves. The Brazil Cost has to be tackled, otherwise the end of the crisis - the longest and most persistent one we have ever experienced - will be the beginning of a new wave of boom and bust. And what about the truck segment?  Trucks were the highlight last year, with an increase of 33.4% in sales, at 98,200 units, and 7.5% in production. Buses also recovered, with growth of 38.8%. This year, the estimate is for a 16.9% increase in heavy vehicles, to 143,000 vehicles sold, with stronger recovery in GDP. Any chance of exports improving in any segment?  No, not in the short term, no resumption in Argentina. The country has very high interest rates and inflation, in addition to having to pay its foreign debt. To complicate matters, political instability in countries like Chile and Colombia is a warning signal in markets where we have been gaining ground. Heavy vehicle exports are expected to fall by 22.7% on last year, to close to 16,000 vehicles. Alarico Assumpção Júnior, president, Fenabrave After growing 10.5% in 2019, what is Fenabrave’s expectation for domestic vehicle sales for 2020?  We have key drivers for the continued growth of the automotive market and, therefore, we maintain an optimistic outlook for 2020. The sector started 2019 with good prospects and, month after month, the recovery was validated. The sale of more than 4 million vehicles last year was the best result in the last five years. For road implements, the result was much more meaningful, with a 41.93% increase, with 63,425 implements, in 2019, compared to 44,689 units in 2018. But is a double-digit growth possible?  For 2020, we expect a combined global growth of 9.6% and 23% for road implements. We are talking about 4.3 million vehicles. What are the drivers that lead the entity to foresee these figures?  Economic stability and the expected 2% growth for the GDP should create more confidence, both for consumers and investors. With low interest rates and inflation on track, we should Leaders of the main entities in the automotive and transport sector see development in spite of uncertainty A positive snapshot R ead the opinion of the presidents of Anfavea, Fenabrave, NTC and Sindipeças on the development of the automotive industry and the transport segment throughout 2020. The scenario of uncertainties has increased, but not enough that, at least for now, the positive forecasts should be reviewed by the entities that bring together vehicle manufacturers, dealers, transport and logistics companies, and parts and components suppliers.