Anuário da Indústria de Implementos Rodoviários 2020

51 see an improvement in employment levels and, also, excellent credit supply, which is essential for the vehicle distribution sector. The positive result in 2019 was also achieved thanks to these reasons and this should be repeated in 2020. Therefore, we trust in a new growth cycle, even if moderate. In 2020, will the credit offer continue to grow?  Both interest rates and defaults are low and banks more willing to offer credit for financing. Today, for every 10 financing requests 7 are approved, that is, a 70% approval rate. During the crisis, this ratio was the opposite. This indicates an improvement in the quality of the registration of those who want to take financing to buy a vehicle. What about heavy vehicles, specifically?  According to Fenabrave’s forecasts, the heavy vehicle market will continue to grow more than the light vehicle market, as has been happening in recent years. Sales of automobiles and light commercial vehicles are expected to grow by 9%, to 2.89 million units, while trucks may increase 24%, from 101,700 to 126,100 units. The bus segment is expected to grow 16%, from 27,200 to 31,500 licenses, and the motorcycle segment will follow the growth for cars and light vehicles, up by 9% over 2019, reaching almost 1.2 million registered units in the country. Francisco Pelucio, president, NTC&Logística What is your analysis of the transport segment last year?   According to the latest Decope survey, 39% of companies underperformed 2018, while 35% overperformed and another 26% reported similar performance. The market in 2019 remained basically the same as the previous year looking at it in general. I believe that the first year of the current government and the necessary adaptations slowed down Brazil, not just the sector. But we believe that this year will be better, based on the figures. What are the NTC’s prospects for 2020 in transport as a whole?  The political issue is key for the country and is slowly evolving and this is due to the first year of the current administration and the management style adopted. We are hoping that this year we will be able to approve the reforms that are necessary and were promised by the new administration. The prospects look good, already for 2020, with expected GDP growth of more than 2%, which, if materialized, for the road cargo transportation sector is a positive impact of 6% to 10% of market increase, depending on the transportation segment. What are the key drivers that the entity identifies that may positively and negatively impact the sector?  The drivers that have negatively impacted the sector are the lack of infrastructure, cargo theft and tolls, not to mention the freight index and the Transport Operation Identification Code (CIOT). On the other hand, the slight improvement in the economy and the expectations created on top of it, have been more positive points, in addition to structural reforms in the country. We believe that the next measures planned by the congress should streamline and improve processes in the transport sector. How will the road transport evolve in 2020?  Much will depend on the economy and reforms, if the expectations created are met and the reforms are approved, we should have a progress. In general, cargo transportation goes up or down by 2 to 4 times the GDP, depending on the segment. Therefore, if the GDP grows as expected, around 2%, there will be segments that are expected to grow around 8%. What, in fact, could be decisive for the transport business in 2020?  Pension and administrative reforms, as well as the continuity of investments in infrastructure that seem to be on track, will make a big difference to the scenario of cargo transportation in 2020. Obviously, measures by relevant bodies together with the sector and a greater dialogue between the government and entities, like us at the NTC and the CNT itself, will create a safe and optimistic environment for our sector. We cannot have an uncertain environment, this hinders investments that businessmen want to make and ends up delaying the progress we need to put Brazil on track. Dan Ioschpe, president, Sindipeças What is Sindipeças forecast for the sector in 2020?  Up to this point, we are forecasting an increase in nominal revenue of 3% in 2020, which would mean a turnover of approximately R$ 148.5 billion. The new circumstances, resulting from the arrival of the coronavirus in Brazil, should make us review this over the next few months. Which segment stood out the most last year?  Supply to automakers grew 8.8% in 2019, and the aftermarket was up by 6.6%. Lower interest rates, greater credit offer and increased consumer confidence helped. Exports, mainly due to the crisis in Argentina, were down by 9.2% in Reals and 15.8% in US dollars. Even so, foreign sales remain the second largest source of revenue, 16.6% of the total, behind deals with automakers, with 64.9% of sales. Sales to the independent replacement account for 14% of the business. What should be the behavior of each of these segments in 2020? Up to now, we had projected growth in business with automakers and in the aftermarket and a drop in exports, still due to the situation in the Argentine market. But with the coronavirus, we will have to review the situation over the next few weeks. How much has the auto parts industry invested annually? Is there a prospect for growth this year?  Our sector invested close to R$ 2 billion last year, very close to what was recorded in 2018. For 2020, our forecast was to increase this amount, considering the forecasts for growth in automotive production. Once again, we will have to review it in the coming weeks due to the arrival of the coronavirus in Brazil.