Anuário da Indústria de Implementos Rodoviários 2018

46 T wo of the most experienced transport executives say 2018 will see continued recovery in the sector. José Antonio Fernandes Martins, president of the Inter-state Rail and Road Materials and Equipment Industry Association (Simefre), and José Hélio Fernandes, president of NTC&Logística, are optimistic. Martins says growth is, however, based on a weak base of comparison in last year, and Fernandes says recovery in freight is a real challenge “There is clearly going to be recovery this year. The market is coming back, albeit slowly,” says Martins, who points to the macroeconomic situation as the best evidence in the beginning of the year. He says GDP is expected to grow by between 3.2% and 3.5%, and the basic interest rate will be 6.75% with unemployment at 12.4%, after hitting 14% last year. “Households are paying their bills and have begun to consume a little more. This, of course, influences commerce, the delivery of products and , consequently, transport.” Another important point Martins highlights for the economy and the transport sector is agribusiness. Agricultural commodity prices are still rising, especially soybeans and corn. “Likewise oil, iron ore and meat, where international demand is strong. The global economy is growing,” says Martins, who adds that last year Brazil took in a record harvest of 220 million tons of grains. This, says Martins, has positively influenced business, with confidence in the country increasing. “There is a favorable environment for political reform, despite the postponement of changes in pensions. The government is trying to reduce the deficit and there have been some important results, like the spending ceiling.” “With the economy growing, the need not only for cargo but also passenger transport increases .The bus industry is expected to grow by 10% to 15% in 2018, similar to what is expected in cargo.” Martins, however, says that although growth figures are interesting, they are based on a weak comparison. He notes that the truck sector shrank by around 60% from 2014 to 2017, very close to the highway implement industry. “It’s good, no doubt, but on a very small base.” Most important, however, is the medium-term outlook, according to Martins. “The recovery in 2018 will be modest but consistent with job growth, the agricultural harvest and transport. Brazil is growing step by step.” Not even the presidential election will stop this, says Martins. “Whatever the result, the economy will improve. Depending on who wins, it could get even better.” José Hélio Fernandes has the same view as Martins about macroeconomic factors. He says 2017 saw achievements and progress with the economy and the transport sector improving, with other areas. “Proof was Fenatran, in October, which surpassed all expectations of the exhibitors and the organizers. And 2018 started differently, indicating it may be the best of the past four years. We are optimistic,” he says. If GDP grows by around 3%, Fernandes says road transport will grow by 6% to 10%. “We must remember that this is an election year and it is to be treated carefully, even though we know that the economy has been shaking off political challenges,” he says. After the recession of recent years, the sector reduced costs and downsized. The small recovery in freight prices last year was not enough to make up for the losses in recent years, Fernandes says. The numbers A survey carried out by NTC&Logística in partnership with the ANTT in January of this year says there was a 13.95% fall in fractionated cargo and a 20.60% fall in unitary cargo. 62% of the 2,495 companies surveyed saw a fall in turnover and 47.6% decreased in size. “ The crisis, affected the whole production chain and freight costs were hit.” 52.4% of freight carriers had to wait about 25 days to get paid. As a consequence, 40.6% of them had idle vehicles and 29.3% are in labor disputes. Fernandes says the National Transport, Costs, Tariffs and Market Study Board (Conet) in Natal met in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte state in February and made freight cost recovery one of its proprieties. “Expectations for this year and year are very high. But past and future achievements are useless if we cannot structure companies properly. And this starts with an appropriate rate policy, created on technical bases that guarantee the necessary financial balance for the economic health of the business. Without this, all efforts will be in vain .” The presidents of Simefre and NTC&Logística forecast growth in the transport sector in 2018 despite the known Cautious optimism TRANSPORTES | TRANSPORTS | TRANSPORTES