Anuário da Indústria de Implementos Rodoviários 2019

27 that agribusiness has been the driver of our economy in recent years, even in the most difficult period, and clearly this is a factor that has influenced heavy equipment. It is also natural that now, with the recovery of business and GDP growth, road transport will be impacted first and only then will the distribution of products within cities benefit from this more favorable scenario. There is an average interval of ten months or even over a year between these two reactions. So, the trend is a better year for the domestic market? I can say that I am cautiously optimistic. Even though GDP is growing below what we want, and revisions have often been made downwards, we have noticed an increase in business confidence. Of course, confidence has improved, but investment still does not reflect that. Decisions to invest require a little more time. The consumers have not yet regained confidence and this, for the time being, affects trade, small services and the distribution of products in cities. Hence this slower pace in the resumption of light units. This has even generated a distortion in relation to historical market behavior. In regular years, the ratio between the segments ranges from 1.5 to 2 light products for each heavy implement sold. This situation tends to return when consumption and the economy in major centers stabilize. This should occur within two or three years. And what is the scenario for the following years? When should the industry and the market for implements reach an ideal level? I believe we have entered a period of gradual recovery, without so many surprises, especially if the new government is able to implement the reforms it has proposed. There is no more possibility of a market inflated by very low interest rates, even negative ones, as occurred in 2013, which led companies to invest, in fact, in a consumer bubble, similar to what occurred in 2008 in the United States. Is there any possibility of this upward curve not being confirmed? Risks are always there, they are part of business. But they can be bigger or smaller. I see a much smaller risk now, with the new government and its economic team. If they can implement a lot of the proposals that the government has made, Brazil will get going. The biggest risk is that Congress could approve nothing. By nature, I am an optimist and I believe we will do well in the next three years, without the government creating illusions, as it did in the past. Is the industry better prepared then? Undoubtedly, after this crisis, companies are adjusted to the new reality of the market. We still have some companies that suffered greater difficulties and are in court-supervised recovery. But on average, the industry is prepared to grow solidly. And it is even hiring again .In 2013, the sector employed 75,000 people, which fell to about 38,000 in 2016, our worst moment, when sales of semi-trailers fell to 23,200 units. We suffered with redundancies and high labor costs resulting from them. Since last year , however, hiring has grown by about 20%. The sector now employs about 45,000 people. The crisis, without a doubt, was a lemon from which we have made good lemonade, I believe. A period of maturation and learning for the transport sector, which will not repeat the mistakes of the past. This resizing of companies, of staff, of the entire chain, cost us dearly. Now, at the meetings here at ANFIR, we see that the desire is obviously to grow, but with your feet on the ground, stepping on solid ground, no longer in quicksand. You have 45 years’ experience in the sector. Was that the worst crisis you faced? These four years were the worst, no doubt. We had a crisis in 1981 and 1982, with a lot of bankruptcies. Then we had the lost decade and in the late 1990s a very tough period. The situation improved from 2002 onwards, with the market always growing until 2008, when the economic crisis broke in the United States, with the collapse of Lehman Brothers. But Brazil was one of the first to react and the economy did well until 2014, with the market only growing at a very good pace. There were, it is true, subsidies in 2012 and 2013 that drove business, but the bill had to be paid later. It was a fantasy. The new government talks a lot about opening the Brazilian market up. Would the implements sector be subject to significant competition from imported products? Today imports are close to zero. We import only highly specialized equipment, which is not manufactured here. It may grow, without a doubt - it would be a natural consequence. But I see that Brazilian companies are very well prepared to defend their markets. It is difficult for someone to sell us exports, like it is for us to sell implements in the United States, for example.