Anuário da Indústria de Implementos Rodoviários 2019

36 T here is consensus among transport industry representatives regarding continued growth in sales of implements, trucks and buses this year. Hopes are high with regard to the new government that confidence in companies will return and, consequently, so will investments in the area. Optimistic analysis of 2019 comes from two of the industry’s top executives: the president of Simefre - the Inter-state Railroad and Road Material Industry Association - José Antônio Fernandes Martins, and the president of NTC & Logística - the National Freight Transport and Logistics Association, José Hélio Fernandes. “With the new government, confidence in companies has increased and with that the investment has returned,” says Martins. “We expect a bumper harvest and we are confident that there will be industrial growth, factors that will result in more demand for transport.” The president of Simefre forecasts that sales of implements and buses will grow by between 15% and 20% this year. He says last year’s significant growth, of over 50%, was on a very low base and there is still a long way to go. “We closed 2018 with volumes 35% below those in 2014,” he says. Martins forecasts growth of 2.5% to 2.7% in Gross Domestic Product, believing that inflation will be around 3.5% to 3.6% and the Selic base interest rate, 6.5%. “I’m very confident, not euphoric,” says the executive. In his assessment, the new government will be able to carry forward pension and tax reforms and will resume dialogue with the legislature. “They are important factors for Brazil to return to growth.” Like Martins, the president of NTC & Logística says the new government has created a much more positive feel in the sector. “Pension reform, which everyone says is essential for the country, must finally happen. And the tax reform, although a little more complicated, should also be addressed.” Fernandes points out that the sooner reform takes place, the clearer the signs of a return of confidence in all economic sectors will be, including transport. “We have to shake off the hangover from the last few years. We believe in the country and we will do our part.” He forecasts GDP growth of 2.5% to 3%. “It is worth noting that the recession in recent years was so bad that slow recovery would be normal. But we hope that does not happen this time, that we have a faster reaction.” According to Fernandes, agribusiness is doing well and there is a good chance of recovery in industry and commerce. “In agribusiness there is a sum of positive factors that favors the whole chain. In this area there is no improvisation. It is extraordinarily competent, which leads to growing demand for new technologies and new business opportunities.” The important thing, says Fernandes, is that the tailwind from agribusiness now helps industry, with a positive effect on commerce. “We have a biannual survey here at NTC that shows that optimism increased a lot from July 2018 to January this year. Businesses are much more confident, which has to do with the political climate and the direction reform is going in.” Regarding infrastructure, the president of NTC & Logística says that there is a prospect of improvement in all modes. “The Ministry of Transport is completing railroads and promises to build new highways, and improve existing ones,” says Fernandes. The executive also commented on the truckers’ strike last year, which in his opinion served to highlight the importance of transport in the country. “The mood is much better today. There have been advances made in the period,” says Fernandes. He acknowledges that there is still too much confusion regarding the minimum freight rate and that some surveys show that not everyone is getting paid properly. “But we believe that the problems will now be resolved without radical responses. Our business is transport. It can never stop.” Transport sector optimistic about the new government Not euphoric, but confident TRANSPORTES | TRANSPORTS | TRANSPORTES