Anuário da Indústria de Implementos Rodoviários 2019

45 T he strong vehicle market at the beginning of the year confirms the projections for growth in the domestic market made by all the representative entities in the automotive sector for 2019. The heavy-duty segment is expected to grow more than the light segment, as it did in 2018, but at a slower pace this year. Fenabrave - the National Vehicle Distribution Federation - forecasts 11% growth in the number of cars and light commercial vehicles sold and of 15.4% in the number of trucks. These are similar to those reported by Anfavea - the National Association of Vehicle Manufacturers - at, respectively, 11.3% and 16%. If confirmed, the light vehicle market would sell close to 2.75 million units and trucks would sell 87,700 to 88,000 units. In the case of road implements, Fenabrave estimates 8.8% growth. Alarico Assumpção Júnior, president of Fenabrave, says that January’s performance corroborates the expectation that 2019 will be better than 2018, when total vehicle sales reached 2.56 million units, up by 14.6% over the previous year. “The continued fall in debt default, both for individuals and corporations, and increased consumer confidence reinforce the favorable expectations for the year,” says Assumpção Júnior. It is the same line of reasoning as the president of Anfavea, Antonio Megale. “We started the year with a significant increase in all segments of the domestic market, which is very encouraging. In 2019 we had the best January since 2015 and we are forecasting production of over 3 million vehicles.” With the exception of exports, currently falling mainly due to the crisis in Argentina, all the other indicators for Anfavea are positive. GDP, says Megale - who in April ended his three-year term and was replaced by Luiz Carlos Moraes - is expected to grow by between 2.5% and 3%, inflation will be controlled at 4%, interest will remain at 6% and the US dollar will be between R$ 3.70 and R$ 3.90. “We are betting on the resumption of infrastructure projects, a bumper harvest and the gradual opening up of the Brazilian market. Added to which are optimism about the economic reforms proposed by the new government, and there will be a return of confidence among consumers and investors.” Low base With regard to the truck market, Fenabrave’s vice president for the area, Sérgio Zonta, points out that last year’s growth had a low comparative base, due to the economic crisis and the strong downturn experienced by the segment in recent years. The sale of almost 76,000 trucks represented a significant increase of 46.3% on 2017, and that should be lower this year. What is important, however, says Zonta, is that everything is happening to keep the market growing. In January, for example, 6,740 trucks were registered, 51.5% more than in the first month of 2018. Among truck assemblers, some are betting on growth above the projections made by Anfavea and Fenabrave. Volvo estimates growth of 30%, and Scania between 10% and 20%. Among the factors that favor the heavy vehicle market, Zonta points to expected GDP growth, a sharp fall in the sector’s debt default index and a significant increase in the participation by banks in both private and automotive financing. “Also important is the growth of confidence levels for fleet owners and transport companies, as well as fleet buying by companies as a consequence of the truckers’ strike in 2018,” adds Zonta. Auto-parts Because of the downturn in exports, Anfavea is forecasting a production increase lower than the domestic market for 2019. The estimate is for growth of 9%, to 3.14 million vehicles. It is based on this expectation of increased production that Sindipeças - the National Auto-parts Industry Association - is optimistic about 2019. Suppliers aim to earn R$ 107.1 billion, up by 8.4% on 2018, when revenue, according to preliminary data from Sindipeças, was R$ 98.8 billion. The auto parts industry will also increase investments by 10%, to R$ 2.72 billion. “Despite the fall in exports caused by the Argentine crisis, vehicle production is expected to continue to increase, with a positive impact on the auto parts sector,” says Dan Ioschpe, who has just been re-elected president of the association that represents hundreds of Brazilian and multinational auto parts suppliers. The truck market should sell 88,000 units, estimate Anfavea and Fenabrave Betting on continued growth