Anuário da Indústria de Implementos Rodoviários 2021

44 PROJEÇÕES 2021 | 2021 FORECASTS | PROYECCIONES 2021 Despite estimated growth of 25% in vehicle production in 2021, vehicle manufacturers see a lot of uncertainty in the short term A pesar de un crecimiento estimado del 25% en la producción de vehículos en 2021, los fabricantes de vehículos ven mucha incertidumbre a corto plazo Traffic lights flashing yellow Semáforo en amarillo parpadeante I t has never been easy to forecast what lies ahead for the automotive sector, especially with the regularly volatile Brazilian economy as a backdrop. So, what can we say in a global pandemic, when no one knows when it will be over? After suffering an almost 32% fall in production in2020, the automotive industry expects to recover some of the volume lost this year. Anfavea, which represents light and heavy vehicle manufacturers, forecasts a 25% increase on the two million units made last year. This is still well below 2019’s 2.94 million units. Luiz Carlos Moraes, president of Anfavea, says there is still a lot of uncertainty. “The horizon is still foggy,” he says, remembering the pandemic was a year old in March and that vaccination will take almost the whole year, preventing stronger recovery of the economy. The forecast growth in production, of 15% for the domestic market and 9% for exports, depends on a lot of variables. Moraes does not rule out revisions. Anfavea also warns of other short-term uncertainties beyond the health crisis. There are logistics obstacles, a shortage of inputs, increased taxes, a production chain pressured by increased costs and a devalued Brazilian currency. For the production of heavy vehicles, including buses, which totaled only 18,400 units in 2020 - the worst result since 1999 – Anfavea forecasts growth of 23%, to 135,000 units, up from 109,000 last year. Something like 20,000 units will be exported, 16% more than in 2020. Truck manufacturers, in particular, had far less to complain about in 2020 than automakers. This was above all thanks to agribusiness, which continued to demand heavy models, meaning production and sales of trucks fell much less than the 42% estimated by Anfavea in the middle of last year, when the initial impacts of the pandemic were being felt. By the end of December, however, 90,900 trucks had been made, down by 19.9% on 2019. This exceeded production in 2017, when the domestic market had begun to recover from the crisis the previous year, which limited domestic sales to 51,000 units, the lowest level in the decade. The domestic market accounted for 89,700 light and heavy trucks, only 11.5% down on 2019. “That was much better than we initially expected. 2020 was better than 2018,” says Marco Saltini, director of Anfavea. While 2020 was a pleasant surprise given the industry’s fears, the forecasts for 2021 suggest a much better scenario. But the warning signs are still there - in yellow! P royectar como se debe encaminar el sector automotriz nunca fue misión de las más fáciles, especialmente si tenemos a la casi siempre volátil economía brasileña como escenario. ¿Qué decir en- tonces en un periodo de pandemia global en el cual lamentablemente nadie puede asegurar cuándo terminará y, peor, por cuánto tiempo perdurarán sus efectos? Tras sufrir una caída del casi 32% en la producción de 2020, la industria automotriz espera recuperar parte del volumen perdido este año. Anfavea, entidad que reúne fabricantes de vehículos ligeros y pesados, proyecta alta del 25% sobre las dos millones de unidades fabricadas el año pasado. Asimismo, una cifra aún muy por debajo de la registrada en 2019, cuando 2,94 millones abandonaron las líneas de montaje. Sin embargo, Luiz Carlos Moraes, presidente de la entidad, re- salta que el escenario de incertidumbre todavía es enorme. “La ne- blina sigue aún en el horizonte” - ilustra el dirigente, recordando que la pandemia completó un año en marzo y que la vacunación es un proceso que llevará casi todo el año, lo que impide la retomada más fuerte de la economía”. De esa manera, los esperados 15% de crecimiento de la pro- ducción en el mercado interno y 9% en las exportaciones dependen ANFAVEA