46 Despite bad weather that significantly reduced the harvest in some regions, agribusiness is the main driver of cargo transport in Brazil, with a record grain harvest that will guarantee growth in truck and implement sales in 2022, estimated at between 5% and 10% up on 2021. Itaú BBA forecasts 1.3% growth in agricultural GDP this year, offsetting part of the decline in all other economic sectors, such as industry and services. But growth could be greater, at around 5%, without the dry weather that hit the South and parts of the Southeast and Central-West, causing significant losses in grain and other harvests. Brazil remains one of the largest agricultural producers in the world. The grain crop – mainly corn and soybeans that together account for 88% of the harvest – was a record 268 million tons in 2021, according to Datagro. Even higher numbers were expected for the 2022 harvest, close to 290 million tons of grain, but Datagro cut its forecast in February after persistent dry weather in some regions, to 284 million. It will still be a new record if confirmed after the end of the harvests in September. “Prolonged dry weather in the South, parts of the Southeast and south of the Central-West have already caused unrecoverable losses of 14 million tons of soybeans and 5 million tons of summer corn, which could still be recovered in winter,” explains Flávio França Jr., a grain consultant at Datagro. “On average, the year will see growth, but with great variations between regions. In areas of the South, most affected by the dry weather, there will be a fall in demand for transport, which could be offset by higher productivity in the Central-West,” he says. The consultant says the planted grain area in Brazil has been growing for ten years without stopping, combined with a constant increase in productivity per hectare, which is increasing even faster than the size of plantations. This ensures successive record harvests and increases the number of places that need to be served by trucks and implements. Dynamic sector - Ronaldo Lima, a consultant at Carcon, says Brazil’s agribusiness sector is dynamic and drives subsegments of cargo transport in the country. He offers the example of sugarcane, for which Brazil is the world’s largest producer, and which requires about 600 million tons to be transported every year, also needing vehicles to transport direct products, which in the 2021/22 harvest totals 34 million tons of sugar and almost 25 billion liters of ethanol. Similar dynamics are seen in grain, where Brazil is the world’s largest producer of soybeans and the third largest producer of corn. In addition to transporting harvests always above two hundred million tons, before the harvests, trucks need to deliver more than 40 million tons of fertilizer to farms every year. After processing, the agroindustry demands thousands of vehicles to transport vegetable oil and animal feed, among many other byproducts. Brazil is also the world’s largest producer of chicken and the second largest producer of beef, which drives the transport of feed, animals, and cargo in refrigerated implements for the domestic and export markets. Most in-demand models - The constant search for improved productivity in transport – mainly to offset sharp increases in costs – and changes in legislation are factors that should favor the sale of some specific models of semi-trailers for agribusiness this year. To transport more grain over long distances, bi-train and sixaxle (or nine, including the three on the truck) trucks capable of carrying up to 54 tons are popular among transport companies, preferred over four -axle trucks (seven with the trailer). Another trend in semi-trailer fleets is the gradual shift to tipper trucks, which significantly increase productivity, reducing unloading time. Agribusiness guarantees growth in 2022 Dry weather reduces the harvest, but the grain crop is a record. The sector will be the only one in Brazil to grow and it will continue to buy trucks and implements. AGRONEGÓCIO | AGRIBUSINESS | AGROINDÚSTRIA
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