26 In a more positive macroeconomic scenario, sales are projected to increase without several segments of the automotive sector Much more favorable winds Some are more optimistic, others less so. What is certain is that no one predicts a setback and, in general, the expectation is for growth in most segments of the automotive area this year, especially trucks, which suffered a fall in 2023. Profitability in transportation-related operations is also projected. The president of Anfir, the National Association of Road Implement Manufacturers, José Carlos Spricigo, believes the sector can repeat last year’s numbers. Despite the small, 2.4%, fall in traded volume, from 154,7000 to 151,000 units, 2023 was a good year, in the executive’s assessment. “Products with higher load capacity, such as the fourth axle, have gained market share and rental operations have also grown,” says Spricigo. This means that, despite the lower volume, the year was profitable, without prejudice to the logistics sector’s ability to transport cargo.” Just like last year, the president of Anfir believes that the demand for trailers and semi-trailers should remain strong this year, while demand for bodies on chassis will continue to fall. The light segment, explains Spricigo, was affected by the increase in urban deliveries, which demand smaller vehicles, such as vans: “In this case, it is more difficult to repeat the volume of 60,700 units last year. It’s certainly a challenge, but we don’t rule it out.” In the case of heavy vehicles, sold 90,300 units in 2023, an increase of 63%, the need for fleet renewal and the downward trend in interest rates will contribute to the maintenance of positive numbers. The leading segments for road equipment acquisitions are currently agribusiness and construction. Among this year’s opportunities, the president of Anfir mentions Fenatran: “Traditionally, it is a sales-boosting event for our sector and with that we can say that our expectation for the year 2024 is good.” In addition to the show, there are the investments in work announced in the Growth Acceleration Program (PAC), estimated at R$ 1.7 trillion, as well as important programs focused on neoindustrialization. “Not to say that everything is rosy, the fly in the soup is the fiscal balance. It’s a big challenge. If you raise taxes and cut incentives, prices go up and consumption falls. In my opinion, the best way is to have a leaner state, without burdening industry and other segments of the economy.” Cargo transport - As happened in the road equipment market, there were also segments in transportation as a whole that did well, and others less so in 2023, as the president of NTC&Logística, Eduardo Rebuzzi, comments: “It is a reflection of the scope of the sector”. Overall, however, the picture was more positive than negative last year, considering the entity’s survey indicating that more than half of the companies surveyed reported growth on the previous year. “Although the result for 2023 is not considered bad, the mood among road freight transport entrepreneurs is not optimistic. The same survey shows that only 11% believe that the future will be better, against 34% who think that the situation is likely to worsen in the coming years,” reveals Rebuzzi, noting that in GDP growth close to 2% is less than Brazil needs to serve its social demands. Regarding the need for urgent investments in infrastructure, there is an expectation among transporters that the federal government will act firmly, also using public-private partnerships and increasing concession programs. “It is essential for the country that we have a short, medium, and long-term State program to ensure constant improvement in its logistics infrastructure, involving all modes,” says the president of NTC&Logística. Among the points that concern the sector, he cites the structural difficulties that have been part of the reality of the segment for decades, such as the poor quality of highways and cargo theft. “There is also a lack of drivers and SEST SENAT has developed incentive programs for new professionals to become interested in the activity,” says the executive. As for advances, he mentions the exemption of payroll tax, fundamental for a sector such as transportation, considered one of the ones that generates the most jobs in Brazil. “We also need to closely monitor the tax reform in progress in the National Congress, in order to keep the sector competitive and strong enough to serve the development of the economy. We cannot forget that this is a strategic activity, and is also fundamental to the performance of other modes,” concludes the president of NTC&Logística. Automakers - Anfavea, which represents vehicle manufacturers, is optimistic about the light vehicle market for 2024 and a little more so in the case of heavy vehicles. According to the entity’s projections, automobile and utility vehicle sale will grow by 5.7% to 2,300 units, while the heavy goods business, including trucks and buses, will grow by 13.6%, to 146,000 units. Overall, Anfavea estimates an expansion of 6.1% in total registrations, to 2.45 million units, 6.2% in production (2.47 million), and 0.7% in exports (407,000 units). PERSPECTIVAS | OUTLOOK | PANORAMA
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