26 Leading entities foresee modest growth for the automotive sector, with the possibility of stabilization by 2026. Much to consider Across the automotive sector, leading organizations generally view 2026 as a year of stability – bordering on stagnation – while not ruling out a potential downturn in certain segments. There is also some expectation of a modest recovery in the truck market, though growth is likely to remain limited. At the outset, however, José Carlos Spricigo, President of ANFIR, expects the market to remain highly unstable in the first half of the year, driven by geopolitical factors: “The year began with the outbreak of a new conflict that could have negative repercussions, influencing business in Brazil as well as globally. One of the immediate effects, for example, has been increased volatility in commodity prices.” On the other hand, Spricigo points to positive factors for the year, such as the harvest, which is expected to reach another record, and a favorable exchange rate scenario for inputs used in agricultural production. In addition, the federal Move Brasil program, with a budget of R$10 billion, is already having a positive impact on the road equipment sector. While Anfavea President Igor Calvet prefers to speak of “cautious optimism,” Eduardo Rebuzzi, President of NTC&Logística, points to a scenario of caution and stability for 2026. He notes that recent research conducted by the organization indicates that only 38.5% of transportation companies plan to renew their fleets this year. With regard to heavy vehicles, Fenabrave presents the most optimistic outlook. The organization estimates a 3.5% increase in truck sales, to 114,800 units, and a 2% increase in the road implement segment, to 72,400 units. Demand for light vehicles is also expected to grow by 3%, totaling approximately 2.6 million units. In the light vehicle segment, Anfavea projects growth broadly in line with Fenabrave, at 2.8%. In contrast, it sees the truck market as virtually stagnant, forecasting a marginal increase of just 0.1%, from 113,000 to 114,000 units. The president of the automakers’ association explains that this cautious optimism reflects the fact that 2026 will be marked by a higher number of extended holidays compared to 2025, as well as the World Cup and elections. Also weighing on the modest projections across the sector are high interest rates and rising default levels. There is an expectation that the Selic rate will decline, although a more pronounced easing is likely only toward the end of the year. This outlook is one of the factors leading Fenabrave to project an increase in truck sales – a segment that is also expected to benefit from the Move Brasil program. “The truck fleet renewal program, backed by Fenabrave, is expected to inject R$10 billion into subsidized truck financing by June, at annual rates between 13% and 14% – a move that could significantly boost the sector. Adding to this optimistic outlook are expectations of a Selic rate cut by year-end and a strong grain harvest,” said Arcelio Junior, president of the entity. For light vehicles, he notes that a meaningful expansion in financing credit – both in volume and accessibility – will hinge on two key conditions: a reduction in interest rates and the effective implementation of the Guarantee Framework Law.” In terms of production, Anfavea projects a 3.7% increase in 2026 compared to 2025, reaching 2.74 million units across cars, light commercial vehicles, trucks, and buses. By segment, light vehicles are forecast to grow 3.8%, reaching 2.58 million units, while truck production is expected to see a more modest 2.3% rise – climbing from 124,000 to 127,000 units.” In a brief assessment of 2025, the president of NTC&Logística describes it as a year of stability shadowed by margin pressure. According to Rebuzzi, while operational costs remained relatively controlled in the short term, labor costs experienced a significant increase. The main point of concern was a 10.1% shortfall in average freight costs relative to NTC’s cost benchmarks. Furthermore, average payment terms stretched to 47.6 days, while 7.3% of revenues were delayed – placing sustained pressure on cash flow. In short, it was a year of intense activity, but one in which profitability was clearly squeezed. Striking a note of caution when addressing 2026 projections, Rebuzzi points to the organization’s own research: 57% of respondents expect the market to remain stable, 29.6% anticipate a deterioration, and only 13.3% foresee any improvement. For NTC&Logística’s president, the defining challenge of 2026 will be to close the freight rate gap, restore margins, and improve the balance between cost and revenue, especially in light of the structural increase in labor costs and labor impacts. PERSPECTIVAS | OUTLOOK | PANORAMA
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